Bitcoin Enters a Technical Bear Market: Correction or a New Downtrend?
Everyone’s asking the same question: is this just a correction, or are we officially entering a bear market?
The short answer: technically yes, we meet the criteria for a bear market.
The longer answer: relax, take your finger off the “sell everything” button, and let’s look at the full picture.
By traditional market definitions, a bear market is confirmed when we see:
- A drop of over 20% from the previous peak
- Dominant negative sentiment
- Lower trading volume
- Weak or nonexistent dip-buying
And yes, all of that is happening right now.
But that’s not the whole story.
Not all bear markets are the same
There are two major types:
Cyclical bear market
- Average decline: ~84%
- Duration: around 2.5 years
Short-term bear market
- Average decline: ~36%
- Duration: 2–3 months
One is a "crypto winter". The other is a painful correction inside a bull run.
We've been here before
In the current bull cycle (which started late 2022), Bitcoin has already gone through seven drops between 20–40%, most of which fit the “short-term bear market” category.
The current decline has lasted about 40 days.
The real question: does it end here, or do we slide into a deeper cyclical bear?
Two camps right now
Camp 1: This is a full cyclical bear market
- Crypto historically moves in four-year cycles
- The timing of the drop aligns with the end of the previous cycle
Camp 2: This is a short-term bear inside a bull market
- Global liquidity cycle is delayed
- It now appears to be turning upward
- More liquidity = more risk appetite = higher prices
We're personally leaning toward this second scenario, but no one has a crystal ball. These are hypotheses. What matters is how confident you are in your own position.
The historical lesson
During the 2016–2017 bull run, Bitcoin saw multiple drops of 20–40%.
It hurt in the moment, but almost nobody remembers that now.
People only remember the move from ~$430 to ~$20,000.
Same story for the last three years. Bitcoin rose 520%, but 73% of that time it wasn’t making new highs. Most months were boring, confusing, depressing, or scary.
These are the exact conditions that push people out right before the real move starts.
The real question
It’s not just about the market — it’s about whether you can psychologically handle it.
If you believe we’re entering a long-term cyclical downtrend and you sell — that’s fine.
If you believe this is a temporary correction and you hold — that’s also fine.
What matters is having a thesis and not reacting purely out of fear.
A non-investment note from our founder Rostislav Totev:
These are the moments legends are made. Everyone buys when prices go up and the market feels easy. Real results happen when you have the courage to step in during the reddest periods. If you’re wondering whether it’s worth it at all, that’s often a sign the timing is good. If you can’t see how or when we go back up, that might also be the right time. The harder it is to press Buy — the more meaningful the action might be.
In these drops, you don’t stack altcoins. You stack Bitcoin. When the market reverses, then you move into large-cap alts, and as the trend matures, you slowly rotate out of the top 10.
This is not financial advice. It’s a mindset.
These moments are exactly why we created our Telegram community. We talk openly about strategy, mindset, long-term thinking, and how not to panic during downturns. We don’t share signals or “easy profits”, but real approaches that help you make decisions confidently even when the market looks darkest. If this resonates with you and you want to discuss ideas with people who think the same way, join the group.
