Why Bitcoin's 4-year cycle no longer works – and what comes next?

For more than a decade traders and investors have relied on a fairly simple model – that every four-year halving is followed by a major Bitcoin market peak.

Rather than asking “When will the top arrive?”, it might be time for a more important question: Does the four-year cycle still work?

470 days after the halving – where are we?

According to the classic theory, roughly 15 months post-halving Bitcoin should be in the midst of a parabolic rally. Instead we see slower, choppy growth – far from the blow-off-top structures of 2017 and 2021.

Yes, the price is high. But long-term models such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart or the Power Law Bands say we’re nowhere near historic overvaluation.

Why does this matter?

To keep the four-year cycle intact, Bitcoin would need to leap from ≈ $115 k to above $200 k by end-2025. That would require euphoria on a par with 2020 – not impossible, but hard to predict in the current climate.

If the model holds?

Then we’re in the gold zone. From here to year-end we could see prices double, followed by a classic altcoin season as in 2017 and 2021. Not a reason to sell early – but a potential opportunity.

If the model is broken?

Even better for the patient. It would mean the peak shifts to 2025-2026 – more time for accumulation, infrastructure, and tech development in the space. More time to position strategically.

In both scenarios the outlook remains bullish.

Altcoins – a signal for something bigger

Historically the big “alt seasons” begin about a year after the Bitcoin halving, when BTC dominance breaks key levels. In 2017 and 2021 that was when capital rotated en masse into alternative coins.

Today we’re far from that point. BTC dominance is still in an up-trend, meaning broad altcoin interest hasn’t fully awakened.

When does a true alt season arrive?

At least three conditions must be met:

✅ BTC dominance breaks below its 50-week EMA.
✅ The next bounce forms a lower high.
✅ Global liquidity is in a sustained up-trend.

Until then, altcoins will lag – perfectly normal in the early phases of a bull market.

Liquidity is the new king

One key insight of recent years: the real market driver isn’t the halving but liquidity – specifically the M2 money supply, one of the most reliable gauges of global liquidity.

History is clear:
- M2 peaks = BTC peaks.
- M2 troughs = BTC troughs.

And right now? M2 is only beginning to accelerate – hinting that the biggest wave is still ahead.
The same goes for altcoins – without sustained liquidity, no lasting alt season.

Takeaway for Bulgarian investors

Whether you believe in the four-year cycle or not, now isn’t the time for panic but for planned action. Too many people sell too early, led by old models.

The truth:

➡️ Data point up.

➡️ Liquidity is set to grow.

➡️ Altcoins haven’t yet begun.

If you want to be prepared rather than surprised, now is the moment to educate yourself, review your portfolio, and leverage the market structure.

At Altcoins.bg you’ll find everything you need – from secure trading to expert resources, webinars, and long-term positioning opportunities.