Has the market woken up? Macro data and events pushing crypto up
After a relatively sluggish start to 2026, the crypto market suddenly showed signs of life. Some assets reversed upward, and sentiment shifted from “we’re waiting” to “okay, what’s happening?”
Here’s what’s driving the current price rebound and which events could influence the market this week:
1) Macro
The first full week of 2026 comes with a busy macroeconomic data schedule. These are the releases the market will be watching:
- December ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) – Are U.S. manufacturers increasing material orders and preparing for growth?
- December ADP Nonfarm Employment (Wednesday) – Is private-sector employment expanding or contracting?
- November JOLTS Job Openings (Wednesday) – Are companies increasing or reducing open positions?
- December Jobs Report (Friday) – What does the broader labor market picture look like?
- January MI Consumer Sentiment (Friday) – A “vibe check” on consumer confidence.
The data point that matters most for short-term sentiment? PMI.
PMI above 50 signals an expanding U.S. economy, which is usually a positive sign for risk assets.
2) The big macro event: Venezuela
If you missed the news… at the end of last week, the U.S. detained former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
At the same time, the U.S. assumed temporary control over Venezuela’s governance. Why does this matter?
Venezuela, Trump, and Bitcoin: A geopolitical shock at the start of 2026
Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world – more than even the Persian Gulf countries.
3) How does Venezuela connect to crypto?
The key lies in interest rate policy and potential rate cuts in 2026.
This year includes 8 FOMC meetings, which means 8 opportunities for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
The overall logic is simple:
- Lower rates = cheaper credit
- cheaper credit = more funding for businesses and growth
- growth = more liquidity and risk appetite
- risk appetite = a better environment for crypto
The “magic formula” the market is looking for is:
Employment weakening + inflation weakening = higher odds of rate cuts.
This is where energy prices come in. Gas prices are an important component in inflation measurements.
If the U.S. gains real access to Venezuelan oil and supply increases, we could see downward pressure on oil prices and, in turn, additional downward pressure on inflation.
Add to this the fact that the U.S. labor market has been showing signs of cooling in recent months, and the conditions start aligning for a scenario in which the Fed has more reason to soften its policy.
4) Charts
Markets don’t wait for news to become official – they react in advance.
A technical look at Bitcoin shows the following:
- For a sustainable uptrend, price must form higher highs and higher lows
- BTC reacted positively to the news around Venezuela, rising from around $88,000 to $94,000
- This move formed a higher low, which is a key signal for maintaining the long-term uptrend
Despite price moving sideways for months, the larger structure remains bullish. Not a bad way to start the first full week of 2026.
What’s next?
The week is packed with important data, and the market is already trying to price in the next macro moves.
It remains to be seen whether the momentum will hold as calendar events begin to roll out one by one.
The first week of 2026 is definitely starting more interestingly than expected.
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When the market starts moving, the difference isn’t whether you saw the news – it’s whether you have a convenient and secure way to react in time.
