Bitcoin is above $90K, but there's a problem...
The past few days the market has looked much more alive.
Bitcoin jumped back above $90,000, ETF inflows are picking up again, and total crypto market cap has climbed back above $3 trillion.
Sounds great.
But there’s one problem.
Based on the current data, the market still isn’t showing signs of a quick return to $100,000.
At least not yet.
Here are the three main reasons why this rally might be shorter than expected:
1. Bitcoin is hitting its long-term trendline
About two weeks ago, BTC broke below its long-term trendline and, for the first time ever, stayed under it for several days.
Now it’s climbing back up… but it’s running straight into that resistance level.
Historically, when price breaks below a major trendline, the first attempt to reclaim it almost always meets resistance.
And that’s exactly where Bitcoin is standing right now — at the wall.
2. Markets often retest the bottom
We saw this clearly during the March–April decline:
- the market formed a bottom
- followed by a mini rally
- and then returned to retest the original levels
This isn’t a bearish breakdown — it’s a normal and healthy phase where the market looks for a stable base.
Bitcoin could easily repeat the same pattern now.
3. Bitcoin dominance needs to rise further
This one matters.
When Bitcoin dominance rises steadily, it typically signals the market is building a foundation before a true move to the upside.
The good news: BTC.D is trending up.
The less good news: it likely needs to reach around 60% before we see a real impulse.
What does the macro picture say?
Over the past weeks, rate-cut expectations have been jumping all over the place:
- late October: 95%
- then a drop below 35%
- and now back up to ~85%
The reason?
A single sentence from Fed President John Williams:
“I see the possibility of another rate cut in the near future.”
That alone pushed expectations back to 85% — and Bitcoin moved up right with them.
At the moment, BTC is almost glued to expectations for a December rate cut:
- falling expectations → Bitcoin slides from $110K toward $80K
- rising expectations → mini rally back to $90K
What does all this mean for the market?
Right now, the single most important macro indicator for Bitcoin is rate-cut expectations.
The next FOMC meeting is in 12 days, which leaves plenty of room for more volatility.
If expectations drop again, Bitcoin can easily follow them down.
What are we watching at Altcoins.bg?
For the next real move upward, we want to see:
- Bitcoin breaking its long-term trendline with real strength
- Bitcoin dominance continuing to rise
Until then, we stay calm, watch the data, and avoid getting emotional over short rallies.
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If you want to see how we got to this point, check out our previous article: “The Market Is Finally Waking Up — Is This the Light at the End of the Tunnel?”
